Como a expansão de hidrelétricas, perda florestal e mudanças climáticas ameaçam a área de distribuição de anfíbios na Amazônia brasileira

Abstract

Amphibians are a very sensitive group to environmental changes so they are currently among the most threatened vertebrates. We can list climate change, deforestation, and hydroelectric dams as constant threats to the group, even in highly protected areas such as the Amazon. The Brazilian Amazon is home to 20 families of amphibians covering a total of 308 species, of which 14% have unknown status or are classified in some category of threat (near threatened, vulnerable and endangered). In this study, we investigated how these threats could affect the distribution range of amphibians in the Amazon. To do this, we overlap the geographic distribution of the species with the location of hydroelectric dams (in activity, under construction or inventories) and with maps of deforestation scenarios and future climate changes (2030 and 2050). We found that 67.2% of species may lose distribution area due to overlapping with hydroelectric dams. In addition, deforestation is also a potential threat to amphibians, but has a smaller impact compared to changes in climate. By 2030, 180 species may lose area for deforestation, however, only 10 species will lose more than 10% of their territory. By 2050 the number of species threatened by deforestation increases to 200, of which Pseudopaludicola saltica is expected to be the most threatened, with 38% loss of area. The largest potential loss of area of distribution was caused by climate change, mainly by increasing temperature. We found that, three amphibian families are expected to have more than half of the species with 50% of the distribution area potentially threatened by climate change in 2030; In 2050 this number increases to 13 families. Hydroelectric construction and deforestation threaten local populations of Amazonian amphibians with possible population declines, local extinctions, and reduced population genetic diversity. In addition, worldwide, climate change has been linked to reduced survival and changes in geographic distribution of amphibians. Given this scenario, we suggest that the country take the lead in decisions on environmental issues, in addition to defining short- and medium-term conservation measures to prevent further deforestation and future extinctions